The 2025 college football season kicks off with a matchup fans have never seen before: the South Florida Bulls hosting the No. 25 Boise State Broncos on Thursday night.
Boise State is coming in hot after a dominant 2024 campaign — an unbeaten 7‑0 run in Mountain West play, a 12‑2 overall record, and a strong 5‑1 performance on the road. South Florida finished 7‑6 last year, holding a 3‑3 split at home, and now faces the challenge of welcoming one of the nation’s most consistent programs to Raymond James Stadium.
Kickoff is set for 5:30 p.m. ET in Tampa. Oddsmakers list Boise State as a 5.5‑point favorite, with the over/under at 62 total points, according to SportsLine consensus odds.
Before you lock in any bets, the SportsLine projection model has weighed in with its top plays:
Best Bets
- Boise State -5.5
- Under 62
Why Boise State Can Cover
Both teams finished near even against the spread last season — South Florida at 7‑6 ATS, Boise State at 7‑7 — but the matchup at quarterback could tilt in the Broncos’ favor.
South Florida’s Byrum Brown is looking to bounce back from a leg injury that cut short his record‑setting momentum in 2024. Across the field, Boise State’s Maddux Madsen is coming off a 3,018‑yard, 23‑touchdown season and will be facing a Bulls defense that surrendered the second‑most passing yards per game (278.8) in the AAC last fall.
The SportsLine model projects Boise State to cover in well over 60% of its simulations.
Why the Under Could Hit
The Broncos allowed 363.7 total yards per game last season, but with several top tacklers returning and offseason upgrades to the secondary, they could keep South Florida from breaking free for big plays.
Boise State also closed 2024 by hitting the under in three of its last four games — even with star running back Ashton Jeanty powering through defenses. The projection model sees these teams combining for 61 points, with the under cashing nearly 60% of the time.
