As Scotland prepare to play Hungary in their final Group A match, Sky Sports looks at all the permutations that could see them reach the last 16 with just two points.
Scotland were defeated by Germany in their first match, but a better performance allowed them to draw with Switzerland and give themselves a chance to reach the round of 16.
This is how Steve Clarke’s team can reach the knockout rounds of Euro 2024…
If Scotland loses to Hungary
The easy one. If Scotland lose, they will be out of Euro 2024 as they will finish last in Group A and therefore will not be able to reach the round of 16.
If Scotland beat Hungary
Scotland would qualify directly for the round of 16 of Euro 2024 in second place if they beat Hungary and Switzerland lose to Germany, in addition to the Scots overcoming a deficit of six or seven goals in goal difference.
For example, if Scotland wins 3-0 and Germany also wins 3-0, then Scotland will finish second in terms of goals scored. The same would happen if Scotland wins 4-0 and Germany wins 2-0 or Scotland wins 5-0 and Germany wins 1-0.
However, if Scotland wins 1-0 and Switzerland loses 5-0, Switzerland would finish second in terms of goals scored. Scotland winning 2-0 and Switzerland losing 4-0 would mean they would move onto the best disciplinary record, which the Scots still follow due to Ryan Porteous’ red card.
Any comeback of seven goals from goal difference would see Scotland finish second.
If Switzerland manages to finish second and Scotland has to settle for third, that’s where things get complicated.
Scotland would face a nervous wait to find out if four points would be enough to reach the knockout rounds. However, history would be on their side. No third-placed team with four points has failed to reach the round of 16 of the Euro Cup since this format was introduced.
Much will depend on how much they can beat Hungary. A big victory would greatly increase his chances.
If Scotland win and their goal difference remains low, they would be eliminated if four of the five The following results occur in the two days after the match against Hungary:
Monday June 24: Albania beat Spain
Tuesday June 25: Austria avoids defeat against the Netherlands
Tuesday June 25: Slovenia beat England and Denmark vs Serbia does not end in a draw
Wednesday June 26: Or Ukraine vs Belgium and Slovakia vs Romania end in a draw
Wednesday June 26: Georgia beat Portugal
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John McGinn says he hopes one of his nephews is sad after the important Euro clash in Scotland after confirming he has some Hungarian relatives.
If Scotland draws against Hungary
It would be interesting for Scotland to draw against Hungary, as two points could be enough for Steve Clarke’s team to qualify as third.
If the Scots draw against Hungary, they would need two of the three results that will happen to qualify:
- Albania lose against Spain And Croatia lose against Italy in Group B
- England beat Slovenia by four goals (as long as Scotland scores the same number of goals against Hungary as Slovenia against England) And Denmark defeat Serbia
- Czech Republic lose against Türkiye And Georgia lose against Portugal in Group D
If a team from Group B and If a Group D team gets at least one point in the final group games, then a draw for Scotland would not be enough due to their meager goal difference of -4.