From now on, there will be playoffs at Euro 2024 and our football betting expert, Jones Knows, unleashes his knowledge and predictions on the action.
Switzerland vs Italy, Saturday, 5:00 p.m.
Don’t be afraid to bet on a draw is my advice when it comes to European Championship knockout matches. Since Euro 1996, those matches that bet on ending tied in this competition will have obtained very healthy profits at the betting level. A staggering 45 percent of knockout matches in that period ended in a draw. There’s a 19/10 chance with Sky Bet for this one to go to extra time and it looks like a fair call.
Those looking for a stronger betting angle in the game should focus on the Italy corners, where the line looks favorable.
Luciano Spalletti is likely to use the 3-5-2 formation he employed against Croatia, which suits key players such as Nicolo Barella and Alessandro Bastoni, who play so well in this system at Inter Milan.
It is a style of play that encourages wide players to move into deep crossing positions and this increases the chances of winning corners. The two full-backs here, Federico Dimarco and Giovanni Di Lorenzo, were responsible for winning 70 corners between them in Serie A last season with Dimarco’s average of 1.65 corners won per game bettered by only two other players in the league.
Italy have won 11 against Croatia in a 3-5-2 system, so the line of six or more at 11/8 with Sky Bet looks a safe bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1 (Italy will win on penalties) | BETTING ANGLE: Italy to win six or more corners (8/11 with Sky Bet – Bet here!)
Germany vs Denmark, Saturday, 8pm
Looks like a big draw for Germany. They are still a team that I worry about going the distance, as they will be vulnerable to a team that plays with quick transitions and speed on the wings. But Denmark is not that team. It is an aging team, which lacks imagination, especially in the attacking areas. I would be surprised if this vibrant Germany didn’t deliver in 90 minutes.
Antonio Rudiger is certainly enjoying the feel of his home nation playing for Julian Nagelsmann’s attack-minded team.
He’s quite the showman, isn’t he? And he’s already hit two spectacular shots from distance in the tournament.
Antonio Rudiger is 100/1 to score from outside the box
He is not immune to long-range shots. In his final season with Chelsea, he took 20 shots from outside the box, six of them on target. You can get 15/2 on him scoring from outside the box at Sky Bet, a bet that was placed on Germany’s win over Scotland. And the 100/1 on him scoring from outside the box is a bet for dreamers.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-1 | BETTING ANGLE: Antonio Rudiger will shoot on goal from outside the area (15/2 with Sky Bet – Bet here!) and Rudiger will score from outside the area (100/1 with Sky Bet – Bet here!)
England vs Slovakia, Sunday, 5pm
Expect the same from England against a similar opponent to the one they faced in their group. It will be safe, it will be hard to watch, but Gareth Southgate’s side will probably find a way to overcome a turgid, low-scoring encounter.
A penalty for scoring seems like a runner to me here at 5/2 with Sky Bet, as England are the best team in the tournament at winning penalties, by some distance, but none of them have yet to go down.
England have been awarded 35 penalties in just 97 games since Gareth Southgate took charge. That kind of ratio is super high.
Take, for example, last year’s Premier League campaign. The highest ratio of penalties won per 90 minutes was set by Chelsea, who won 12 penalties in 38 matches, with a ratio of 0.32 per 90. England are working on a ratio of 0.35 per 90 for penalties won with Southgate and that’s from a larger sample of matches. It’s a skill.
And it is one of England’s most potent weapons under this manager, as he has a tricky forward line, capable of winning fouls.
Meanwhile, Slovakia, who will defend deep, have already conceded one penalty in this tournament against Romania and conceded two penalties in qualifying.
The numbers scream out for a high probability of a penalty being scored yet, Sky Bet’s odds don’t reflect that. Taking into account Harry Kane’s record from the spot, I’d have this bet closer to 7/4 than 5/2. And of course, you’re also guaranteed to score a penalty in your favour from Slovakia.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-0 | BETTING ANGLE: A penalty will be awarded (5/2 with Sky Bet – Bet here!)
Spain vs Georgia, Sunday, 8pm
What would you have given the odds of this match being a last-16 encounter in this tournament when the final whistle blew after Spain’s 7-1 win over Georgia in qualifying? A million to one, perhaps?
Overall, Spain beat the Georgians 10-2 in those two games, recording 53 shots to Georgia’s 13.
Unsurprisingly, Spain are 1/7 with Sky Bet to win inside 90 minutes.
Although I have no interest in facing Spain, it’s hard to ignore how free this really is for Georgia, who play with such spark and fluidity in attack. That makes them runners here to add to the score.
They have scored in 13 of their last 15 games, including both against Spain, and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia and Georges Mikautadze have genuine quality. Both teams to score are overpriced at 6/4 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 4-1 | BETTING ANGLE: Both teams to score (6/4 with Sky Bet – Bet here!)
France vs Belgium, Monday, 5 p.m.
So far I’m disappointed with both teams, but the tournament could start here for both of them. They’re tough to read.
What is clear is that the Belgian defence, especially Wout Faes and Jan Vertonghen, will have a hard time controlling Kylian Mbappé. That could be the decisive factor.
If Belgium are to somehow progress, they will have to rely on some variation with France’s finishing and hope that Kevin De Bruyne maintains the form we have seen from him in this tournament.
He has been the heartbeat, playing as the roaming No.10. These sorts of big chances are made for players of his ilk and it is his chance to hit target prices that stands out here. The 10/11 with Sky Bet for him to register an effort on target looks big considering how involved he is in the final third and that he has already taken five shots on target in the tournament.
RESULT PREDICTION: 2-1 | BETTING ANGLE: Kevin de Bruyne will shoot on goal (10/11 with Sky Bet – Bet here!)
Portugal vs Slovenia, Monday, 8pm
Forget Cristiano Ronaldo. Portugal’s key man is Bruno Fernandes.
Once Roberto Martinez realises that, Portugal will feel better. Ronaldo has scored just one goal (not a penalty) in his last 11 games for Portugal in major international tournaments and his presence is becoming a liability and a secondary element.
Meanwhile, Fernandes is now in the prime of his career and proved in qualifying that he is the key to Portugal succeeding on the big stage. He contributed 14 goals and found the net in one of his two starts in the group stages. I expect him to excel in the knockout stages, starting with what looks like a genuinely one-sided contest with Slovenia. Sky Bet’s 4/11 for Fernandes to score in a Portugal win looks a good price.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0 | BETTING ANGLE: Bruno Fernandes to score in Portugal’s victory (11/4 with Sky Bet – Bet here!)
Romania vs Netherlands, Tuesday, 17:00
For someone who has managed 11 assists in his last 22 starts for his country, Denzel Dumfries is vastly underrated by the Sky Bet markets.
Considering how much Holland is loved and is expected to score more than two goals, the 9/2 bet on Dumfries assisting a goal is really attractive. Those odds imply a chance of about 18 percent; I would put it closer to 30 percent based on the data and how dangerous Dumfries is on Holland’s right wing.
RESULT PREDICTION: 0-2 | BETTING ANGLE: Denziel Dumfries to register an assist (9/2 with Sky Bet – Bet here!)
Austria vs Türkiye, Tuesday, 8:00 p.m.
The next two weeks should be an exciting ride for punters like myself who backed Austria ahead of the tournament. The 80/1 odds are now 16/1. Ralf Rangnick’s side have not only proven to be a force, but have also been left in the weaker half of the draw after playing fearless football that saw them top the group.
A clash with Türkiye could be the game of the tournament, but beautiful chaos is shaping up.
Austria will press hard and fast, while Turkey is full of outstanding and exciting players in attack, who are allowed to express themselves. In this context, there are two defenses prone to making errors. All of this just makes the goals and cards a scream.
Keeping the over cards lines on your side should prove a profitable decision in the knockout rounds. Since Euro 1996 in the qualifiers, the average number of cards per 90 minutes stands at a whopping 4.76 and in the last 16 games of the last two Euros, 13 out of 16 games saw over 3.5 cards. If you combine over 2.5 goals here with over 40 booking points using Bet Builder, you can conjure up a 6/4 shot with Sky Bet.